HF Propagation Picture for the week of 5-11-2026

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NC7C
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat May 09, 2026 9:08 pm

HF Propagation Picture for the week of 5-11-2026

Post by NC7C »

Here's the HF propagation picture for the week of May 11, 2026, drawn from the latest data:


**📡 Current Solar Indices (as of May 10–11, 2026)**

The 10.7 cm solar flux is currently **120 sfu**, and the sunspot number stands at **81**. The planetary Kp-index is a very quiet **1.67**, with solar wind speed at 416 km/sec.

**☀️ Solar Activity**

Sunspot region **4432 is growing rapidly** and poses an increasing threat for M-class solar flares. The 24-hour maximum already included an **M5 flare** at 1339 UT on May 10. Something to watch closely this week.

**🌍 Band-by-Band Outlook**

Based on the most recent propagation report from May 9:

**20m is the standout performer**, offering reliable propagation all day and night. **40m and 80m** are best at night and during grayline, while **15m and 17m** provide fair daytime options. **10m and 12m** may open briefly during midday but are generally poor at night. For maximum contacts, prioritize 20m and the lower bands after dark.

**🔭 Solar Trend & Outlook**

Solar flux peaked at **160 in December 2025** and has since dropped to **120**, while sunspot numbers have declined from over 120 to under 80. This trend suggests we are **past the recent solar maximum**, with declining solar activity — meaning fewer high-band openings and more reliance on lower bands for reliable contacts.

**⚠️ Watch for Later This Week**

A **large equatorial coronal hole** is currently visible, and solar wind flowing from it could reach Earth around **May 15–16**, which may temporarily elevate the Kp index and disturb HF conditions. Plan your DX operating accordingly — conditions mid-week should be good, but watch for possible geomagnetic disturbance late in the week.
73'

Shane Hansen, NC7C
Florence, AZ (DM43gb) | amateurradio.me
VE: ARRL, GLAARG, LAUREL
cfaraz.com • copahams.org • arizonaoutlaws.net
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